Step 1: Read the problem
Step 2: Create payoff and opportunity loss tables for the problem.
Step 3: Determine the optimal decision based on all of the decision methods:
· Expected monetary value
· Expected opportunity loss
· Return to risk ratio
Step 4: Based on your work in Step 3, decide what you believe is the optimal decision and explain your reasoning.
Step 5: Create a report of your work for your manager. The report needs to include the following:
· A clear statement of the suggested decision and the reasoning behind your decision. Your reasoning must rely on the decision methods from Step 3 (that is, your personal opinion is not appropriate) and an explanation of why you valued certain decision methods over others.
o Make sure to talk about multiple decision methods and not just focus on one. That is, don’t just say “EMV is the best”. Instead, explain why EMV is the best and include what the other decision methods indicate as well.
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